The dawn of a fifth wave: the emergence of a global periodicityĪ couple of indications converge to warn us about the very likely start of a fifth wave of COVID-19, globally. The next article will focus on possible impacts and consequences of this wave. We give possible estimates for its length and look at the factors that will shape this wave, namely anti COVID-19 restrictions and travel policies, vaccination and length of immunity, and finally the emergence of variants. We assess it is likely the fifth wave has just started. This article focuses on a global fifth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Success will depend upon the way our answers are adapted to the reality of the COVID-19 pandemic and its evolution in the future. How we “live with the COVID-19”, with different policies according to countries, will vary according to the responses we give to these questions. Early Warning Systems & Indicators – 3rd Training for the ESFSI in Tunisia.Long COVID and the Fifth Wave – The Hidden Pandemic.Assessing the “Strategic” in Strategic Surprise.Long COVID and the Fifth Wave – Three Scenarios.Omicron Variant – “Major, Imminent Threat” Warning.

Omicron Variant – “the Good, the Bad and the ‘Intriguing’” – Warning.The Red Team Analysis Weekly – 13 January 2022.Scanning and Monitoring for Warning on Global IssuesĪre we at the beginning of a fifth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic? If yes, is it dangerous and should we be worried about it? Alternatively, is the COVID-19 pandemic over? Has the COVID-19 pandemic evolved towards an endemic illness that is not more dangerous than the seasonal flu? Meanwhile, have we just accepted COVID-19 related death as a fatality, not worth our concern?.War (General and Islamic State, Libya, Syria, Ukraine).Communication of Strategic Foresight and Early Warning.Methodology of Early Warning and Scanning.Donation – Fund Analysis against Global Threats.Geopolitical Uncertainty Exposure Diagnostic.Online Course – Scenario-building for Geopolitical Risk and Crisis Anticipation.Online Course: Geopolitical Risks and Crisis Anticipation – Analytical Model.

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